Mohammad Abdi Seyyedkolaee; Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh
Abstract
The relationship between economic growth and inflation is one of the long-standing issues in macroeconomics, which is theoretically and politically confronted with many controversies. This is especially important for the Iran's economy, which seeks to achieve price stability and accelerate economic growth. ...
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The relationship between economic growth and inflation is one of the long-standing issues in macroeconomics, which is theoretically and politically confronted with many controversies. This is especially important for the Iran's economy, which seeks to achieve price stability and accelerate economic growth. In this regard, the present study has used continuous wavelet transformation to provide a new insight into the relationship between economic growth and inflation with time-frequency analysis in 1369:2–1397:2. The results show that in the long run (more than 4 years), an increase (decrease) in economic growth is accompanied by a decrease (increase) in inflation. In addition, the increase in economic growth has caused inflationary pressures in limited form and in short run (1380-1383). Therefore, it is recommended that policy makers focus more on economic growth in the long run.
Employment
Shahryar Zaroki; Mastaneh Yadollahi Otaghsara; Arman Yousefi Barfurushi
Abstract
Informal employment typically poses many problems for communities and governments. For example, most informal workers face problems relating to poverty and economic insecurity due to the lack of a social security organization and labor law in the informal sector. Informal employment also has detrimental ...
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Informal employment typically poses many problems for communities and governments. For example, most informal workers face problems relating to poverty and economic insecurity due to the lack of a social security organization and labor law in the informal sector. Informal employment also has detrimental effects on governments, such as incorrect estimates of GDP and tax cuts. Accordingly, identifying the factors affecting informal employment will greatly help economic policymakers to control this phenomenon. This study attempts to examine the determinants of informal employment in urban and rural areas of Iran between 2013 and 2019. To this aim, applying the urban and rural household income-expenditure survey in the mentioned period, the share of informal employment in the total employment was calculated. Preliminary data processing illustrates that, on average, 45.1% of urban employees and 74.6% of rural employees are engaged in informal occupations. The results of estimating the research model indicate that employees' level of education and marital status have an indirect (favorable) effect on informal employment in urban and rural areas. There is also a U-shaped relationship between age and informal employment. At the same time, being a man in urban areas and being a woman in rural areas increase informal employment.
Mahdieh Rezagholizadeh; Amirhossein Alami
Abstract
Tax evasion constitutes a major component of underground activities and development of financial sector -as one of the most important sectors in every country can affect its size. Considering the importance of this issue, this study tries to investigate the relationship between financial development ...
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Tax evasion constitutes a major component of underground activities and development of financial sector -as one of the most important sectors in every country can affect its size. Considering the importance of this issue, this study tries to investigate the relationship between financial development and tax evasion and provide an answer to this question: can financial development in Iran reduce tax evasion? This study estimates the volume of tax evasion in Iran by using multiple-indicators -multiple causes (MIMIC) model and maximum likelihood method in AMOS software, for the period of 1978-2016. Then the effect of financial development on tax evasion is investigated by using ARDL Bounds test method. The results show that despite some fluctuations, volume of tax evasion has been generally increasing over the underlying period. The results of the estimation of the effect of financial development on the tax evasion indicate that financial development in Iran in long-run and short-run (with one lag) has a negative and significant impact on the tax evasion. Also, findings show that an increase in inflation, increases tax evasion and increase in GDP reduces tax evasion.
urban economy
Mahmoud Olad Ghareh Ghouz; Mahdi Khodaparast Mashhadi; Saeed Malek Sadati
Abstract
Urban planning typically involves technical and political procedures of developing and designing land use and determining urban boundaries. However, similar to other government interventions, urban planning creates rents for some urban lands while causing losses to other lands. To gain the maximum profit, ...
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Urban planning typically involves technical and political procedures of developing and designing land use and determining urban boundaries. However, similar to other government interventions, urban planning creates rents for some urban lands while causing losses to other lands. To gain the maximum profit, land developers prefer to develop lands that have acquired higher privileges, i.e., more extensive construction permits. It will make cities' development patterns unbalanced in favor of land with more accumulated planning rents. The transfer of development rights (TDR) is a market approach to designing urban development that balances. It evenly distributes the benefits and disadvantages of urban planning, especially in protecting historic buildings and agricultural and garden lands. This paper simulates the application of TDR as an alternative urban planning way to cope with the unbalanced development of urban lands in Tehran. We utilized an urban dataset from 2007 to 2019 and evaluated the efficiency of TDR using Agent-Based Modeling (ABM). Results implied that the usage of the TDR would improve the distribution of investment in Tehran in a more balanced pattern. However, more studies, especially considering the regional differences in the city and expansion of the model for other for-profit or non-profit usages such as urban gardens, make it imperative to use.
Monetary economy
Mahshid Shahchera
Abstract
Since moral hazard in behaviors of banking system may jeopardize efficiency of debt mechanisms to fund rising, it is important to examine the empirical and theoretical evidences of moral hazard in the Iranian banking system. Risky behavior of banking system is caused by the asymmetric information problems ...
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Since moral hazard in behaviors of banking system may jeopardize efficiency of debt mechanisms to fund rising, it is important to examine the empirical and theoretical evidences of moral hazard in the Iranian banking system. Risky behavior of banking system is caused by the asymmetric information problems between creditors and central bank. This paper considers the simultaneous effects between changing risk and leverage that justifies existence of moral hazard in the Iranian banking system. To do so, we use dynamic panel data model for the period 2006-2019 in Iranian banking system. According to the obtained results, there is a significant positive relationship between the level of risk and leverage. This relationship implies the existence of moral hazard that can be caused unsuccessfully performance of central bank in supervision and supporting in the banking system.
Welfare, poverty and income distribution
Cirous Omidvar
Abstract
Given the importance of Rawls and Nozick as two prominent philosophers from left and right wing of liberalism, in this paper a comparative root-seeking evaluation about their distributive justice theories is presented. By using the idea of explanation of expectations from a distributive justice theory ...
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Given the importance of Rawls and Nozick as two prominent philosophers from left and right wing of liberalism, in this paper a comparative root-seeking evaluation about their distributive justice theories is presented. By using the idea of explanation of expectations from a distributive justice theory based on a problem-oriented approach, through a step by step root-seeking process, philosophical foundations of distributive justice theories of these two philosophers were identified. Then on the basis of internal and external consistency criteria, these foundations and theories were evaluated. The results of study are as follows: while Rawls founded his theory and particularly difference principle on the Kantian foundations which was the target of Nozick’ criticism; Nozick Which besides Kant, was under influence of Locke, founded his theory on the existence of a kind of natural law. Also while Kant and Locke, each in some way, harmonized their own value foundations with divine anthropological and epistemological foundations, Rawls harmonized it with this anthropological foundation that there exists a common sense of justice in humans, without mentioning the material or divine source of this moral sense. In contrast, Nozick harmonized value foundation of his theory with a kind of natural law; a godlike natural law that by determining the initial distribution of natural endowments, was determinant factor of entitlement of each individual; a distribution that Rawls even didn’t permit the use of just or unjust adjective about it.
Mohammad Reza Pakravan-Charvadeh; Seyyed Safdar Hosseini; Saeed Nori Naeini
Abstract
Improving food security status through socio-economic determinants is always important at the household level. In this study, after assessing the food security level of households in urban and rural areas of Khuzestan province, associated factors including economic, social, and racial ...
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Improving food security status through socio-economic determinants is always important at the household level. In this study, after assessing the food security level of households in urban and rural areas of Khuzestan province, associated factors including economic, social, and racial with food security were identified in 1397. To achieve the goals, 1876 and 1495 questionnaires were collected in urban and rural areas respectively. The logistic regression model was used to identify effective factors. The results showed that 63 % and 68 % of households in urban and rural areas face food insecurity respectively. Hamidiyeh county with 18 %, Omidieh 25 % , and Dezful 28 % had the least percent of food secured households in the urban areas of Khuzestan province, respectively. Also, the cities of Shadegan with 13 %, Izeh with 15 %, and Mahshahr port with 18 % had the least percent of food security households in rural areas, respectively. The results of the quantitative estimated model in the present study showed that employment of the head of the household, income, number of rooms and personal car ownership were significantly and directly associated with food security in urban and rural areas of Khuzestan province. Therefore, due to the weakness of income policies which are applying as the only ways to ameliorate food security status in Iran, paying close attention to socio-economic factors related to improving the level of household food security before any intervention is necessary.
Bayram Pakravan
Abstract
The impact of world economic competitiveness on the welfare of people and on economic development is undeniable. The present study examines the effect of good governance indicators on the global competitiveness index of the economy in selected countries of the MENA region. In order to achieve the research ...
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The impact of world economic competitiveness on the welfare of people and on economic development is undeniable. The present study examines the effect of good governance indicators on the global competitiveness index of the economy in selected countries of the MENA region. In order to achieve the research objectives, the statistical information related to the research variables during the period 2010-2017 was collected from the reports and database of the World Economic Forum and the World Bank. Then, the research model was estimated using the panel data econometric method and the fixed effects model. Research findings show that the impact of corruption control, rule of law, regulatory quality, and the government effectiveness indicators on the global competitiveness index is statistically significant at 5% level and have positive effect. The impact of protest and accountability and political stability indicators on the global economic competitiveness index is statistically significant at 10% level; these indicators have positive impact on the global competitiveness index of the economy. In addition, the impact of control variables such as innovation factors, efficiency factors, and essential requirements on the global competitiveness index of the economy is positive and statistically significant. Thus, in order to strengthen the global economic competitiveness of countries, the paper suggests following up and practicing the good governance indicators provided by the World Economic Forum, besides as well as other influential factors.
Agriculture, natural resources and environment Economics
Parichehr Najafi; Masoud Fehresti-Sani; Mohammad Reza Nazari; Akram Neshat
Abstract
The market structure of the sugar industry in Iran, due to the production of high share of products by a few firms, has moved away from competitive market conditions, which is expected to result in market failure due to the inefficiency of monopoly. So the main questions addressed in this paper are; ...
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The market structure of the sugar industry in Iran, due to the production of high share of products by a few firms, has moved away from competitive market conditions, which is expected to result in market failure due to the inefficiency of monopoly. So the main questions addressed in this paper are; How we can increase the share of low-income firms and what is the relationship between the efficiency of firms and the market structure of this industry. In order to answer these questions, using the cross-efficiency ranking method, the maximum relative distance from the anti-ideal virtual decision-making unit based on the data envelopment analysis method and the efficiency of these companies was evaluated. Then, using parametric models, the relationships among behavior, profitability, efficiency and market structure of these firms were examined. Statistics and information of sugar factories in Iran in 2014 were analyzed using GAMS and SHAZAM softwares. Based on the results, there is an interaction relationship between structure and performance in the industries in sugar supply chain. Increasing the profitability of small-scale units compared to large units by implementing supportive policies and reducing the cost of providing inputs, increasing the efficiency and quality of sugar production through investment in R&D, branding, developing new markets by implementing export incentive policies and productivity management cycle are ways to modify the structure of the sugar supply chain.
Parviz Mohammadzadeh; Samaneh Khangaldizadeh; Shahram Kamangar
Abstract
Considering the role of creativity, innovation and entrepreneurship in economic growth and development, addressing these issues can be of particular importance. Particularly, the effect of these variables on economic growth is ambiguous and the need for empirical examination of this relationship seems ...
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Considering the role of creativity, innovation and entrepreneurship in economic growth and development, addressing these issues can be of particular importance. Particularly, the effect of these variables on economic growth is ambiguous and the need for empirical examination of this relationship seems to be necessary. Some studies, including Schumpeter (1947) and Roemer (1986), have highlighted the prominent role of entrepreneurship and innovation in the process of economic growth. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of innovation (patent index) and entrepreneurship on the economic growth of selected countries, using GLS estimation method. For this purpose, data from 20 selected countries during the period 2001-2015 and the panel data approach have been used. The results of the model indicate that these two variables have a positive and significant effect on economic growth in the above countries ؛So that 1 percent increase in the rate of entrepreneurship and innovation (the number of patents registered) resulted in an increase of 13 and 4 percent, in the growth rate of these countries, respectively. Therefore, in the present study, creating an efficient innovation and entrepreneurship system is considered necessary to achieve appropriate economic growth.
Growth Economy
Alireza Keshavarz; Zakariya Farajzadeh
Abstract
Natural capital has been introduced in growth models recently in order to address the growth differences among the countries. In this context, the objective of this study is to examine the role of introduced indices for natural capital in Iranian economic growth. To get the objective, Solow neoclassical ...
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Natural capital has been introduced in growth models recently in order to address the growth differences among the countries. In this context, the objective of this study is to examine the role of introduced indices for natural capital in Iranian economic growth. To get the objective, Solow neoclassical growth model using the data for 1980-2015 was applied. The applied indices include ecological footprint, biological capacity, ecological footprint-capacity difference, ecological tension, and agricultural land. The findings showed a significant fluctuation of the natural capital indices contribution to growth. Production elasticity with respect to ecological footprint found to be in the rage of 0.02-0.04 while the corresponding values for biological capacity and agricultural land tends to increase, ranging from 0.10 to 0.15. The corresponding values for physical capital fall into the range 0.12-0.17. In addition, the appropriateness of CES production function revealed the validity of constant returns to scale assumption in Iranian economy.
Financial Economics
Vahid Taghinezhadomran; Zahra Mila Elmi; Fatemeh Zahra Husseinpor
Abstract
Banks have a considerable ability to use financial leverage compared to non-bank firms to earn high profits and returns with support of the central bank as a last resort lender. The ability of banks to use leverage depends on internal characteristics such as size, profitability and risk, as well as environmental ...
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Banks have a considerable ability to use financial leverage compared to non-bank firms to earn high profits and returns with support of the central bank as a last resort lender. The ability of banks to use leverage depends on internal characteristics such as size, profitability and risk, as well as environmental variables such as inflation, which affect the Business cycle. This study aims to find the effects of these variables on the dependency of banks on financial leverage in recession and booms periods. To this end, Hodrick-Prescott filter was used to extract business cycles. The Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) based on the data from 18 Iranian banks during 2005-2018 was used in order to test the research hypotheses. The results show that larger banks are more inclined to leverage and economic conditions have no significant effect on this desire. Banks with better financial stability and less risk rely on lower financial leverage in times of economic prosperity. The effect of profitability criteria on the leverage of banks depends on economic conditions. In times of economic prosperity, banks with better profitability have a higher incentive to leverage. Also, how the inflation affects the financial leverage of banks depends on the economic conditions. During an economic boom, inflation encourages more reliance on leverage in banks.
international trading
Mohammad Matash Yar ahmadi; Minireh Rafat; Seyed Komail Tayebi
Abstract
This paper investigates the factors affecting export diversification in Iran. As deducted from heterogeneous trade theory, the main variables of interest in this paper's baseline specification are entry and trade costs. For this purpose, Theil index is calculated for export diversification. This ...
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This paper investigates the factors affecting export diversification in Iran. As deducted from heterogeneous trade theory, the main variables of interest in this paper's baseline specification are entry and trade costs. For this purpose, Theil index is calculated for export diversification. This index is obtained for ten selected two-digit commodity codes in the HS coordinate system. Then the basic model is introduced and estimated by the generalized least squares (GLS) method. Estimated results show that diversification depends negatively on domestic and foreign market entry costs. Therefore, reducing the unnecessary rules for setting up enterprises, customs regulations, creating transportation and financial facilities can help to improve the Iran's export diversification.
Esmaiel Abounoori; Mansour Tour
Abstract
Information about optimal risk hedge ratio, optimal weight of asset portfolios, the intensity and direction of impact of shock and volatility on financial markets is important for investment, policy, risk management and development of financial markets. In this study, to examine risk hedge ratio, optimal ...
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Information about optimal risk hedge ratio, optimal weight of asset portfolios, the intensity and direction of impact of shock and volatility on financial markets is important for investment, policy, risk management and development of financial markets. In this study, to examine risk hedge ratio, optimal weight of asset and the volatility spillover among Iran, the United States, Turkey and UAE stock markets, multivariate GARCH model is estimated using the weekly stock index data from December 15, 2008 to April 10, 2017. Independence of Iran stock market from other markets is due to the relatively low volatility of the Iran stock market and the insignificant correlation between the Iran market and other markets, so risk hedge ratio and optimal weight of assets between the stock market of the studied countries and Iran is low. Also the results indicate considerable own ARCH and GARCH effects on the stock market of these countries. The US economy is relatively large, thus other markets have no significant effect on this market as expected. Most of the eigenvalues of the ARCH and GARCH effects matrix has been slightly smaller than unit, which indicates that relative stability in these markets has been low against domestic and foreign shock and volatility.
International economy
Leila Allahdadian; Seyed Komail Tayebi; Gholamhosein Kiani
Abstract
According to the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theory, besides labor force and capital other production factors such as energy and indicators of environment quality may affect exporting potentials of goods and services in an economy. Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to explore the effects of ...
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According to the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theory, besides labor force and capital other production factors such as energy and indicators of environment quality may affect exporting potentials of goods and services in an economy. Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to explore the effects of the main determinants, particularly carbon dioxide emission intensity, which is a proxy for environment quality, on the net exports of the selected manufacturing products (auto parts and petrochemical products) between Iran and its major trading partners. Basically, an econometric model for Iran’s net exports is applied to these trading products specifying two panel regression equations using the data of 21 Iran’s partners over 2000-2019. Empirical results have been obtained by estimating two regression equations of auto parts and petrochemical products net exports using panel GLS method. Based on the empirical results, there is a significant and negative effect of the ratio of Iran’s carbon dioxide intensity to that of its trading partner on net exports of auto parts, which implies a decrease in the trade deficit of these products. In contrast, the results show that the environmental quality significantly and negatively affects the net exports of the petrochemical products implying a rise in the ratio of Iran’s carbon dioxide intensity to that of its trading partner, which decreases Iran’s net exports of the petrochemical products.
Macroeconomics
Maryam Mehrara; Amir Gholami; Seyed Mohammad Mehdi Ahmadi
Abstract
Due to the importance of balancing internal and external of the economy, research on the interaction effects of the budget deficit, savings gap, and current account deficit has always been a major issue for policymakers. The main purpose of this study was to test the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis ...
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Due to the importance of balancing internal and external of the economy, research on the interaction effects of the budget deficit, savings gap, and current account deficit has always been a major issue for policymakers. The main purpose of this study was to test the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis during the period 1978-2019 in the Iranian economy with the presence of the degree of trade openness for two models of oil trade and without oil trade. In the present paper, by providing a theoretical framework and using the Johansen - Juselius cointegration test method and the error correction mechanism, long-term and short-term relationships of the variables of this research are investigated. The results showed that the long-run relationship among the components of the triple deficit hypothesis is established in the two models of oil trade and without oil trade, but the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis is not confirmed in the short run. Through the Impulse response functions, decisions were made about the interrelationships among the variables, and the results of this method confirmed the validity of the triple deficit hypothesis for the oil trade model and the occurrence of the inverse mechanism for the oil-free trade model. Finally, in the oil trade model, internal and external imbalances reduced trade openness, and in the non-oil trade model, only the savings gap played such a role. This emphasized the key role of the private sector in reducing internal and external imbalances.
Hossein Samsami; Habib Nemati
Abstract
The vulnerability of Iranian economy to various shocks has attracted attention to economic resilience. In this regard, foreign trade, which is inherently more exposed to shocks, merits careful consideration. In order to examine the effects of imports on economic resilience, a small-scale macroeconometric ...
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The vulnerability of Iranian economy to various shocks has attracted attention to economic resilience. In this regard, foreign trade, which is inherently more exposed to shocks, merits careful consideration. In order to examine the effects of imports on economic resilience, a small-scale macroeconometric model has been specified. Having solved the model and run simulations, the effects of shocks stemming from imports on GDP is measured. This study, for the first time, quantifies the concept of resilience by examining the implications of economic shocks in a large-scale macro-econometric model. Accordingly, the modeled system received three types of shocks caused by the imports of consumer, intermediate, and capital goods. Then, the magnitude of their effects on GDP as well as the pace in which the variables back to their equilibrium are analyzed. The results demonstrate that the shocks coming from intermediate goods have the most severe consequences and threaten Iranian economy severely.
Financial Economics
Firooz Shaghaghi; Asgar Pakmaram; Younus Badavarnahandi
Abstract
Financial development is one of the main goals of economic policymakers to achieve sustainable economic growth. One of the important approaches to financial development is the expansion and deepening of the stock market. However, such expansion needs improvement of good governance, or institutional quality. ...
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Financial development is one of the main goals of economic policymakers to achieve sustainable economic growth. One of the important approaches to financial development is the expansion and deepening of the stock market. However, such expansion needs improvement of good governance, or institutional quality. Given the importance of this issue, the present study investigates the effect of institutional quality indicators (voice and accountability, political stability without violence, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and corruption control) on stock market variables by two Islamic countries group (10 countries) and non-Islamic countries (37 countries) during period from 2002 to 2016 using data panel method. The results showed that the institutional quality components plays an important role in the growth of stock prices relative to the growth of the average return on the whole economy as well as the increase in the volume of stock trading relative to the growth of the total turnover in both groups of countries. However, the impact of these components on the group of Islamic countries is far greater than that of non-Islamic countries. In addition, foreign direct investment, increasing real GDP at a constant price, and government final expenditure at constant price in both groups of countries have a significant impact on the growth of stock trading volumes and stock prices.
Mohammad Taghi Taghavifard; Reza Habibi; Abbas Ali Yari
Abstract
The purpose of this research is to measure the efficiency of selected Iranian banks from 2010 to 2016. We estimate efficiency, productivity and efficiency changes under the Bayesian setting. In this research, we consider the Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) of banks as bad outputs, while good outputs are ...
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The purpose of this research is to measure the efficiency of selected Iranian banks from 2010 to 2016. We estimate efficiency, productivity and efficiency changes under the Bayesian setting. In this research, we consider the Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) of banks as bad outputs, while good outputs are loans, off balance sheet assets and securities. Also, variables such as number of employees, bank capital, fixed assets and deposits play inputs role. Results show that the productivity changes of selected Iranian banks are positive over the period of the study, which is mainly due to the improvement in technology like e-banking services, while efficiency changes continued to be negative over the same period. It is observed that the average efficiency for banks is 85 percent. The Karafarin bank has the largest efficiency among selected banks while Refah Kargaran bank efficiency has the smallest one. Results also show that, during the specified period, private banks have a few better efficiency estimate in comparison with the efficiency of state owned banks.
Hamidreza Horry; Seyyed Abdolmajid Jalae; Maryam Lashkari
Abstract
In any society, government officials and policymakers must take well-being into consideration as it is one of the main indicators of development and also a key element of social growth and development. Evaluating economic well-being during successive, inevitable periods of boom and recession helps evaluating ...
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In any society, government officials and policymakers must take well-being into consideration as it is one of the main indicators of development and also a key element of social growth and development. Evaluating economic well-being during successive, inevitable periods of boom and recession helps evaluating the effectiveness and efficiency of policies and aids economic policymakers in making better decisions. This study aimed to investigate the effects of business cycles on economic well-being index in Iran for the 1980-2016 period. To measure well-being, the Osberg index of economic well-being was used and each component fit was assigned a weight using the Delphi method. Then, in a model suited for Iranian economy, the impact of business cycles was estimated using a gravitational search algorithm. The findings of the Delphi method indicate that economic security component has the highest weight among the four components of this index. Model evaluation revealed that business cycles are directly related to the economic well-being index, indicating that the boom and recession periods of business cycles have respectively led to the improvement and decline of economic well-being index in Iran.
Mehdi Hajamini
Abstract
During the period 1969-2017, Iranian economy’s inflation rate was on average 19 percent which did not have a downward trend; hence the name chronic moderate inflation. In the present paper, by reviewing 110 theoretical and empirical studies and 83 studies on the Iran’s economy, a meta-analysis ...
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During the period 1969-2017, Iranian economy’s inflation rate was on average 19 percent which did not have a downward trend; hence the name chronic moderate inflation. In the present paper, by reviewing 110 theoretical and empirical studies and 83 studies on the Iran’s economy, a meta-analysis on the role of budget structure for explaining the persistence of the chronic moderate inflation rate of Iran is presented. This analysis shows that the budget structure (deficit, operating deficit, capital surplus, and financing) has been the driving force behind the continual increase in the liquidity as well as the permanent repression of interest rates in the post-revolutionary period. Therefore, change in financial and monetary strategies (and not policies necessarily) is a precondition to control the liquidity and inflation. Accordingly, some budgetary rules are needed to improve the process of decision-making and parliament-government-central bank interactions. In addition, a clear consensus has been reached about the inflationary effects of government budgets in the Iranian economy, so it is recommended that future researches focus on how the new rules can affect interaction between the fiscal and monetary autorities using game theory.
International economy
Mahdi Yazdani; Fahimeh Mohebinia
Abstract
In the present study, the competitiveness of Iran's agricultural, industrial and in global markets services sectors has been investigated and analyzed. This measurement was taken by calculating four indicators of relative comparative advantage (RCA) at the level of two- and four-digit codes of ...
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In the present study, the competitiveness of Iran's agricultural, industrial and in global markets services sectors has been investigated and analyzed. This measurement was taken by calculating four indicators of relative comparative advantage (RCA) at the level of two- and four-digit codes of the International Industrial Standard Classification System for Economic Activities (ISIC) and using the data of Iran-world input-output tables during the period 1996-1995. The results show that out of 3 main subgroups of agriculture, only subdivisions of agricultural products, horticulture, livestock and poultry and hunting and other related activities, and out of 19 subdivisions of industry, only subdivisions of mineral extraction and other related materials, have RCA in all studied years. Other subsections have fluctuations in the presence or absence of comparative advantage, and some have a distinct RCA pattern. This situation has existed in 10 service sub-sectors of the country, but in general, the relative export advantage for service sub-sectors has not been identified in the whole period. In addition, the results of RCA index compatibility tests by performing 3 Cardinal, Ordinal and Dichotomous Measures show that the results of Ordinal tests are more satisfactory than the results of Dichotomous and Cardinal tests and therefore, the present study provides an Ordinal interpretation of RCA indicators in the formation of economic policies. Finally, the results of stability tests show that the indicators of comparative export advantage did not have a stable trend during the period.
Habib Ansari Samani; Robabeh Khilkordi
Abstract
The distribution of income, which means the distribution of national income between groups, social classes and economic sectors, is one of the main components of social justice. There are many factors affecting the income distribution. The purpose of this study is to identify the effect of unemployment ...
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The distribution of income, which means the distribution of national income between groups, social classes and economic sectors, is one of the main components of social justice. There are many factors affecting the income distribution. The purpose of this study is to identify the effect of unemployment rate along with other major factors related to income distribution in Iran’s provinces. For this purpose, the annual data for Iran’s provinces during 1999 to 2014, with DOLS estimator have been analyzed. The results show that increasing unemployment in the long run will increase the income inequality in the provinces. Also, inflation rate, economic growth rate and current government spending increase the Gini coefficient in the long run. Error correction model results indicate that, unemployment and government size variables have no significant relationship with the dependent variable in the short run. However Inflation rate and economic growth rate have a positive relationship with inequality in the short run.
Energy Economy
Aida Vaghef; Zahra Abdolmohammadi
Abstract
In oil-exporting countries, it is important to have a clear evaluation of the oil sector at the national and regional levels. In input-output literature, the traditional and extraction methods are often used to analyze the status of economic sectors. These methods have two major shortcomings: double-counting ...
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In oil-exporting countries, it is important to have a clear evaluation of the oil sector at the national and regional levels. In input-output literature, the traditional and extraction methods are often used to analyze the status of economic sectors. These methods have two major shortcomings: double-counting of linkages and having a flaw to show the changes in income of the labor. In this paper, to overcome these shortcomings and to provide a more realistic picture of the status of the oil sector at national and regional levels, a comparative comparison has been used between Iran and Canada focusing on their two major oil-exporting provinces, Khuzestan and Alberta. For this purpose, the production-to-production approach based on the Sraffa-Pasinetti-Leontief theoretical model which its main concept is the induced effect of value-added will be used. The results show that the oil sector creates 0.0435 and 0.0372 units of induced value-added in Iran and Khuzestan. In Canada and Alberta the corresponding figures are 0.3173 and 0.4382. Therefore, this sector has more interdependency with the other sectors in both national and regional levels in Canada (as a well-developed country) than Iran (as a developing country). However, services and industry sectors absorbed more decomposed induced value-added of the oil sector in comparison to other sectors. Therefore, national and regional policies should be implemented to have diversified products and prepare the requirement of having the most of interdependency prerequisites between the sectors.
Macroeconomics
Mohaddeseh Saberi; Zahra Afshari; Ahmad Sarlak; Seyed Fakhroddin Fakhr Hosseini; Esmaeil Safarzadeh
Abstract
In this paper, the effect of population aging on economic growth in a closed economy in which the element of human capital is endogenously formed is simulated. For this purpose the computable generalized Diamond overlapping generation’s model are used for a period of 50 years. First, the dynamic ...
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In this paper, the effect of population aging on economic growth in a closed economy in which the element of human capital is endogenously formed is simulated. For this purpose the computable generalized Diamond overlapping generation’s model are used for a period of 50 years. First, the dynamic effect of aging on macroeconomic variables, especially economic growth, are simulated in the baseline scenario (current state of the Iranian economy).Then the dynamic effects of public policies under different scenarios of human capital and pensions ratios on economic growth for a period of 50 years are simulated. The results of the model showed that the government's general policies to increase human capital increase the share of skilled labor (effective labor) and therefore have a growth effect. At values of public policy tools above the baseline scenario(industrial status), the effect of productivity on aging prevails and long-term growth increases.In addition, the results showed that increasing the ratio of pensions to the level of developed countries encourages demand-based economic growth, but has a level effect and does not change long-term growth. The results show that increasing aging, if combined with government policies to promote human capital, can potentially offset the negative impact of aging on growth.
