Banking
Farshad Momeni; Abbas Shakeri; Javad Taherpoor; Behnam Ezati Ekhtiar
Abstract
In some economic theories emphasizing the positive relationship between financial and real sector development in economy, privatization of financial markets and institutions and increasing private sector share is the dominant approach to financial development. However, private banks performance in some ...
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In some economic theories emphasizing the positive relationship between financial and real sector development in economy, privatization of financial markets and institutions and increasing private sector share is the dominant approach to financial development. However, private banks performance in some countries have shown different results compared to the goals had been set. Lack of proper economic and institutional environment has led to adverse results of private banks. Considering mentioned issues, this study aims to assess the impact of private banking on the economic growth rate in Iran based on the seasonal data form 2003 till 2018 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique. Results of the study have shown that financial development has a positive impact on the growth rate of economy, while, as the market share of private banks has increased, it had a negative effect on the economic growth. The main cause of this negative relationship is undesirable institutional environment which private banks are working in. Therefore, preparing suitable institutional framework is a condition to gain the private banks’ advantages. Central bank constant supervision alongside the enforcement authority prohibiting private banks from managing economic firms and the presence in the alternative markets are the main preconditions.
Elham Kheirandish; Saeed Moshiri; Naser Khiabani; Ahmadreza Jalali-Naini
Abstract
Oil price shocks have direct and indirect impacts on the economies of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. The direct impacts are through demand and supply channels and the indirect (spillover) impacts are through interaction between the countries. Most studies have focused on the direct effects ...
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Oil price shocks have direct and indirect impacts on the economies of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. The direct impacts are through demand and supply channels and the indirect (spillover) impacts are through interaction between the countries. Most studies have focused on the direct effects of the oil price shocks in a specific country or a region and research works on indirect impacts are limited. In this research, the direct and indirect effects (spillover) of oil shocks on both groups of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries are estimated using a dynamic system model. The spillover effects are defined and measured by the “Trade Ratio” and “Weighted Average Economic Growth” indicators. The sample includes 30 oil-exporting and oil-importing countries with a share of 73 percent of the world’s economy. The results show that a positive oil price shock reduces economic growth in oil-importing countries and increases it in oil-exporting countries, but international trade between the oil- exporting and oil-importing countries mitigates the impact of oil shocks on economic growth of both groups.
Monetary economy
Soheil Roudari; Masoud Homayounifar; Mostafa Salimifar
Abstract
In this research, the role of nominal exchange rate volatility and business cycles on the banking nonperforming loans was investigated by using Markov-Switching model during 2005-2018 using seasonal data. Business cycles were extracted from GDP by using the Hodrick Prescott filter. Also, the wavelet ...
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In this research, the role of nominal exchange rate volatility and business cycles on the banking nonperforming loans was investigated by using Markov-Switching model during 2005-2018 using seasonal data. Business cycles were extracted from GDP by using the Hodrick Prescott filter. Also, the wavelet transform model was used to extract nominal exchange rate fluctuations. The results showed that the exchange rate volatility varies in different periods of time and in longer period of time, the foreign exchange rate volatility has a greater negative and significant effect on nonperforming loans of banking network. It shows a dependence of government on banking network. Also, the impact of business cycles depends on the nonperforming loans regime. The sustainability of low regime is bigger than high regime. The results also show that the impact of value added of different sectors of economy varies in different regimes of nonperforming loans. These results indicate that banking system should take into account the value added of different sectors of economy and nonperforming loans regimes which could decrease nonperforming loans.
Ali Fegheh Majidi; Khaled Ahmadzadeh; Seyede Fatemeh Najafi Zadeh
Abstract
In recent years, the desire to create a monetary union at the international level has increased. According to economic theory, the formation of monetary unions and the adoption of a common currency encourages economic integration, controls monetary policy instability, reduces transaction costs in trade ...
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In recent years, the desire to create a monetary union at the international level has increased. According to economic theory, the formation of monetary unions and the adoption of a common currency encourages economic integration, controls monetary policy instability, reduces transaction costs in trade and can lead to an increase in real income through boosting trade. The proximity and neighborhoods of the countries have been introduced as one of the factors affecting trade and the formation of monetary unions. In this study, given the importance of this issue, the effect of the monetary union on bilateral trade has been investigated using the spatial econometric approach during the period of 2000-2015 for a selected countries of the world. The results of the research show that the effect of common currency on bilateral trade is positive, whose trade will lead to economic growth in the countries. Also, the spatial effects of the shared money and geographical distance have been confirmed. Hence, it can be concluded that countries that are adjacent to each other or have common currency would strengthen the trade between themselves, by creating monetary unions. Also, the results of the spatial econometric approach show that GDP and Trade openness index (in three spatial matrices) and real exchange rate (in the common currency matrix and the modified currency matrix) had a positive and significant effect on bilateral trade between the studied countries.
Teimour Mohamadi; fatemeh azizkhani; hasan taee; Javid Bahrami
Abstract
The results of many studies show that rigid regulations on product and labor markets are considered as a key factor in weakening the employment conditions and have led to high unemployment rates. Given the complicated regulations in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), studying the ...
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The results of many studies show that rigid regulations on product and labor markets are considered as a key factor in weakening the employment conditions and have led to high unemployment rates. Given the complicated regulations in the countries of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), studying the great dynamics of deregulation can give useful guidelines for lawmakers and policy makers. The aim of this paper is to study the effect of deregulations of commodity and labor markets on the growth and the unemployment rate in 20 MENA countries using GMM method and Panel VAR approach during the period 2005 – 2017. The results of this study show that deregulation in product and labor markets in the short run will reduce economic growth, increase unemployment and lead to recession. But in the long run, it will increase economic growth and reduce unemployment. The labor market reforms, as opposed to product market reforms, do not lead to major dynamics in economic growth. For policy-making in MENA countries, deregulation in the product market has priority over the labor market, since it has a stronger impact on the wavelength and durability of the effects.
Econometrics
Abbas Shakeri; Teymor Mohammadi; Zinat Zakeri
Abstract
The expansion of the globalization process has increased the relationships among financial markets in different countries, which itself has motivated investors to move among them to make more profit. Given the situation in Iran after sanctions, the possibility of investing in well-known financial markets ...
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The expansion of the globalization process has increased the relationships among financial markets in different countries, which itself has motivated investors to move among them to make more profit. Given the situation in Iran after sanctions, the possibility of investing in well-known financial markets is facing with the risk of sanctions. The present study aims to evaluate the existence of volatility spillover among the financial markets of Iran and Islamic oil exporters countries. To this aim, a multivariate factor stochastic volatility (SV) model and stock price index data were used with daily frequency for the period 12/05/2008-02/19/2020. Based on the results, the main hypothesis that the volatility spillover among the financial markets of OPEC oil-exporting Islamic countries follows a common and uniform random trend is accepted for the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, but not for Iran and Nigeria. Therefore, diversifying the portfolio for Iranian investors in the financial markets of OPEC Islamic oil exporters can reduce the investment risk in the long run which make such economies an appropriate investment destination for Iranians due to the conditions of sanctions.
Macroeconomics
Abdorasoul Sadeghi; Hossein Marzban; Ali Hossein Samadi; Karim Azarbaiejani
Abstract
The unstable state of macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), investment, and inflation rate, as well as the disproportionate level of high volume of cash held by private individuals versus the low volume of liquidity in manufacturing firms, have always been a significant problem ...
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The unstable state of macroeconomic indicators such as gross domestic product (GDP), investment, and inflation rate, as well as the disproportionate level of high volume of cash held by private individuals versus the low volume of liquidity in manufacturing firms, have always been a significant problem in Iran's economy. In this respect, the relationship among the stock market, bank deposits, and speculation in the foreign exchange market, and also, the central bank's role in directing liquidity between them to affect the macroeconomic indicators are important. The current study evaluates this subject for 1988–2018 using a system of simultaneous equations and the three-stage least squares (3SLS) method. The findings indicate that there has been a significant negative relationship among the stock market, bank deposits, and foreign exchange speculation. The stock market and bank deposits have had a significant positive effect on investment and GDP, and in contrast, foreign exchange speculation has shown a significant negative impact. Conversely, bank deposits have negatively impacted the consumer price index (CPI), whereas foreign exchange speculation has shown a substantial direct effect. Finally, despite the existence of a significant negative relationship between three financial markets in the Iranian economy confirmed by the obtained results, the central bank has forfeited a considerable portion of its potential effectiveness in directing liquidity between parallel financial markets to affect nominal and real economic indicators due to interest rate repression.
Education Economics
Zahra Montazeri; Mohsen Renani
Abstract
The primary purpose of this study is to explain an extended concept of human development called human flourishing using the link between economic and psychological approaches. Also, the paper explains why non-cognitive skills are essential. The first approach is based on the technology of skill formation, ...
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The primary purpose of this study is to explain an extended concept of human development called human flourishing using the link between economic and psychological approaches. Also, the paper explains why non-cognitive skills are essential. The first approach is based on the technology of skill formation, and the second approach is based on the theory of hierarchy of needs. The Human Development Index (HFI) is calculated using the Human Development Index (HDI) calculation method and adding an index under the title Crime Index (CI). Accordingly, in this study, 30 selected countries in the form of two groups of in the mentioned indicators are examined. The countries of the first group are in the list of countries with the best education system, and the countries of the second group are not in this list. In the first group, there is no significant gap between the two charts, HDI and HFI, and they have a similar trend. The CI chart also shows the low level of crime and risky behaviors and confirms the higher level of non-cognitive and personality skills in this group of countries. In the second country group, due to higher CI than the first country group, the HDI graph is higher than the HFI graph. Both charts have a similar trend but have a greater downward slope than the first group. The CI chart is also for the second group, with a steeper slope than the first group. Thus, the first group of countries has a higher capacity to meet their self-fulfillment needs due to the high quality of the education system and more attention to cultivating a wide range of skills. As we move to countries with lower quality education systems, this capacity decreases.
Ali Asghar Banouei; Afsaneh Sherkat
Abstract
The problem of spatial equilibrium and disequilibrium has always been one of the main concerns of policy makers and regional planners in Iran. Two prerequisites, which have not been considered by regional analysts in Iran, are highlighted to explain this problem: First, the recognition of theoretical ...
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The problem of spatial equilibrium and disequilibrium has always been one of the main concerns of policy makers and regional planners in Iran. Two prerequisites, which have not been considered by regional analysts in Iran, are highlighted to explain this problem: First, the recognition of theoretical foundations of place-based and place-neutral theories, and, second, the use of integrated and coherent statistics such as the MRIOT. The main purpose of this paper is to examine these two issues while using a multi-regional model with special emphasize on the feedback effects, based on following three questions: Is there a direct relationship between the size of GDP of different regions with their spillover and feedback effects? Which regions have a greater role in the spatial equilibrium? And finally, which sectors do play a greater role in the spatial equilibrium of the country? For answering the above questions, for the first time in Iran, the MRIOT is calculated. The MRIOT comprises nine regions based on the latest approval of the Supreme Council for Spatial Planning using the FLQ-RAS mixed method, within the framework of seven economic sectors for year 2011. Findings show that: First, there is no direct relationship between the size of GDP and the spillover effects of the regions. Second, the feedback effects of the regions with smaller GDP are higher which would potentially play a greater role in creating spatial equilibrium in the country. Third, the feedback effects of the agricultural related industries in eight regions are higher than that of the other economic sectors. This suggests that, this sector can be considered as the driving force behind the spatial equilibrium in the country.
Reza Taleblou; Mohammad Mahdi Davoudi
Abstract
In this paper, in order to calculate portfolio market risk of 10 selected industries indices in Tehran Stock Exchange, two models of Value Risk (VaR) and Expected shortfall (ES) have been used. Different models of multivariate GARCH and various Coppola models have been used in order to estimate the volatility ...
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In this paper, in order to calculate portfolio market risk of 10 selected industries indices in Tehran Stock Exchange, two models of Value Risk (VaR) and Expected shortfall (ES) have been used. Different models of multivariate GARCH and various Coppola models have been used in order to estimate the volatility of the portfolio and nonlinear correlation of asset portfolio. Backtesting has been done by Kupiec, Christoffersen, Engle and Manganelli and McNeill and Ferry tests. Results show that the DCC-GARCH model by t-Student distribution compared to other competing models has the best results in estimating volatility of the asset portfolio. Also among all Copula models reviewed in this paper, t-student copula model has shown better results for estimating asset dependence. Finally, the results of backtesting of different models showed that both the DCC-GARCH model with t-Student distribution and DCC-GARCH-Copula with t-Student distribution have acceptable results in estimating VaR and ES. However, the Lopez and Blanco and Ihle tests showed that the DCC-GARCH model with t-Student distribution compared to the DCC-GARCH-Copula model with t-Student distribution gives a more accurate and efficient estimate of the VaR and ES of asset portfolios.
Economic Development
Behrooz Shahmoradi; Mojgan Samandar Ali Eshtehardi
Abstract
Economic complexity is a concept that is used to express the ability of countries to produce complex products through the proper construction of technology structures in order to collect its diverse technologies and apply them. In this article, by using economic complexity approach, we aimed to identify ...
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Economic complexity is a concept that is used to express the ability of countries to produce complex products through the proper construction of technology structures in order to collect its diverse technologies and apply them. In this article, by using economic complexity approach, we aimed to identify the products in Iran’s technological capabilities frontier that leads the country to produce more diverse and complex products. For this purpose, by using four-digit SITC classification data, 86 products were identified. By producing and exporting them, the country can reach a higher accumulation of technological capabilities and thus a higher degree of diversification and economic complexity. Also, according to three criteria, the total number of competitors, the volume of world trade and the number of importing countries from selected products, 16 products in the world and 11 products in the region were picked up as the products in priority.
Macroeconomics
Ehsan Habibpour Moghaddam; Seyed Mahdi Barakchian; Masoud Nili
Abstract
Since the beginning of the 2010s, the investment in Iran has experienced a continuous and severe fall and the level of the total real investment at the end of 2018 has approximately reached its 2002 level. In this paper, we show that the fluctuation of the investment (in machinery) up to the beginning ...
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Since the beginning of the 2010s, the investment in Iran has experienced a continuous and severe fall and the level of the total real investment at the end of 2018 has approximately reached its 2002 level. In this paper, we show that the fluctuation of the investment (in machinery) up to the beginning of 2010s can be explained by the use of a regression model which includes macroeconomic variables as well as measures of instability in macro environment. However, this model is not able to predict the investment drop during the 2010s and it seems that other factors play a crucial role in the severe fall of the investment in this decade. We will introduce “Political Conflicts” and “Economic Policy Uncertainty” as two indices which are constructed by applying the text analysis method to the press and digital media from 2002 to 2019. The trend of these two indices show a high degree of uncertainty during the recent decade. We will show that the “Political Conflicts” index can explain the investment drop in the 2010s.
currency
Narges Nasiri; Seyed Komail Tayebi
Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to specify an early warning system for currency crisis and to investigate the role of capital control together with other warning indicators in the crisis. Increasing mobility of capital and liberalization in international financial flows is one of important dimensions of ...
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The purpose of this paper is to specify an early warning system for currency crisis and to investigate the role of capital control together with other warning indicators in the crisis. Increasing mobility of capital and liberalization in international financial flows is one of important dimensions of globalization, which has significant benefits to many countries worldwide. However, due to negative impacts on exchange rates as well as currency crises, financial liberalizations followed by some Latin American and Southeast Asian countries raised concerns in the last decade of the twentieth century. Hence the question: can capital control play a role in preventing or exacerbating the currency crisis? This study evaluates the relationship between capital control index and currency crisis and also examines the role of this variable as a warning indicator. Since the main application of the early warning systems is crisis forecasting, the purpose is to model the early warning indicators of currency crisis using Bayesian averaging method. To achieve this, 70 variables were examined for 60 countries during the period 1975-2019, both in floating and non-floating exchange rate systems. The results showed that capital control has a significant effect on reducing the occurrence of currency crisis, also different capital control indicators do not have the same warning power. In addition, different currency systems are effective in changing the power and rank of warning variables, especially for the use of capital control index.
Farhad Matinnafs; Fattah Sharifzadeh; Mahnaz Rabiee; Seyyed Ahmad Hosseini Gol Afshani
Abstract
Economic policies include policy-making in monetary- banking, financial and commercial aspects. Monetary policies are more important in bank-oriented economies and in this countries, The Government determines other policies based on monetary market policy. The present research is conducted concerningthe ...
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Economic policies include policy-making in monetary- banking, financial and commercial aspects. Monetary policies are more important in bank-oriented economies and in this countries, The Government determines other policies based on monetary market policy. The present research is conducted concerningthe challenges of the national economy including inflation growth, price shocks, liquidity growth, bankruptcy of financial institutions and failed projects, with the goal of proposing a model for monetary policy-making process. In this research, an analytical model was designed based on a six-stage policy-making process, and effective organizations and factors were identified after explorative studies and interview with scholars. The Results confirmed the necessity of the existence of 8, 8, 12, 7, 7 , 11 organizations in the stages of identification, formulation, approval, implementation, evaluation and modification/ termination of policies, as well as confirmed the effect of 7 internal and 6 external factors on policy-making process.
Macroeconomics
Zana Mozaffari; Bakhtiar Javaheri
Abstract
Human capital is a hidden variable. In different economic studies, various proxies have been used as a proxy for human capital, including the average literacy index, the number of graduates or the average number of years of schooling. This study will review the economic literature first, and then the ...
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Human capital is a hidden variable. In different economic studies, various proxies have been used as a proxy for human capital, including the average literacy index, the number of graduates or the average number of years of schooling. This study will review the economic literature first, and then the three pillars of human capital index including education variables, skills and health will be analyzed for the Iranian economy. In addition, by using fuzzy approach and Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System, the human capital index in the Iranian economy during the 1981-2019 period will be estimated. The results of this calculation shows that during the period under study, the human capital index has continuously grown; in 1981, the index was estimated at 0.13 and 0.59 in 2019. On this basis, it can be stated that human capital in the Iranian economy during the 1981 to 2019 period has grown significantly. This accumulation of human capital can be seized in the production processes, leading to increase in production and productivity..
Behavioral economics
Maryam Shahlaee; Mehdi Pedram; Narges Hajimoladarvish
Abstract
Acquiring information about expectations is difficult as individuals' beliefs are unobservable. Thus, how expectation forms and how to model expectation is an open question in economic modelling that has been addressed recently by experimental economics. In this article, in order to identify expectations, ...
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Acquiring information about expectations is difficult as individuals' beliefs are unobservable. Thus, how expectation forms and how to model expectation is an open question in economic modelling that has been addressed recently by experimental economics. In this article, in order to identify expectations, we examine the behaviour of subjects when encountering new exchange rates in an experiment. Furthermore, in this experiment, differences of expectation formation among participants and their relation to cognitive abilities are analysed. To motivate people, incentive payments are used. In our setting, while the rational expectation hypothesis is not supported, the adaptive expectation is not rejected. Agents form their expectations in the same way regardless of their cognitive ability. In this context, individuals overreact to the new quantity of exchange rate which is assumed as a noisy perception. This finding is considered as evidence of emotional behaviours in the exchange market.
Saeed Isazadeh; Ezatollah Abbasian; Ahmad zia Noori
Abstract
Afghanistan is a country having the most refugees in the world. The existence of a long common border and linguistic, religious and cultural similarities between Afghanistan and Iran has created a situation in which the vast majority of Afghan immigrants (43 %) stay in the Iran. After taking up the process ...
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Afghanistan is a country having the most refugees in the world. The existence of a long common border and linguistic, religious and cultural similarities between Afghanistan and Iran has created a situation in which the vast majority of Afghan immigrants (43 %) stay in the Iran. After taking up the process of the voluntary return of Afghan refugees with the UNHCR program, 6.2 million people have returned to the home country since 2002. This study is going to use questionnaire data to examine the impact of immigration to Iran on the education and skills of Afghan labor force during the period of 2002-2017. The research results indicate that immigration to Iran has a positive and significant effect on education and skills of Afghan labor force. Besides, the acquired skills, the level of immigrant literacy, the opportunities for education and skills, the type of profession and the duration of their stay in Iran have a significant effect on the employment rate of returning persons. Also, there are significant relationships between: 1) the type of immigrant profession and income, 2) the legality of the immigration process and the opportunities for education and skills in Iran. It also shows that immigration for migrant households is profitable and they are satisfied with immigration to Iran. Hence their satisfaction leads to immigrate again.
Ebad Teimouri; Mohsen Renani; Abdolhamid Moarefi Mohammadi
Abstract
There is no convincing explanation in public choice theory for the "paradox of voting". Despite the prediction that rational individuals will decide to abstain, lots of citizens still vote. The paradox of voting crops up when one tries to explain the decision to vote in an exclusively instrumental framework. ...
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There is no convincing explanation in public choice theory for the "paradox of voting". Despite the prediction that rational individuals will decide to abstain, lots of citizens still vote. The paradox of voting crops up when one tries to explain the decision to vote in an exclusively instrumental framework. In other words, the voting paradox arises because of the flawed notion of rationality held by public choice. By applying another concept of rationality, a deeper and more appropriate viewpoint can be made on how citizens make voting decisions and resolve the paradox of voting. It allows us to explain voting decisions as rational (the voter judges there to be good reasons for his decisions) without interpreting them as instrumentally motivated. In this research, the proposed strategies for solving the paradox of the voting are criticized based on logical reasoning. Then institutional rationality, which is compatible with the methodological approach of institutional economics, has been used to provide a new explanation of the voting decisions of individuals. The results of the theoretical analysis show that institutional rationality can help to solve the paradox of voting.
Neda Bayat; Ali Asghar Salem
Abstract
The critical situation of water and its demand growth in Iran as well as the destruction and improper exploitation of groundwater resources with drought continuity have caused the management of water demand to become an important concern in the country's policies in all sectors, including the household ...
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The critical situation of water and its demand growth in Iran as well as the destruction and improper exploitation of groundwater resources with drought continuity have caused the management of water demand to become an important concern in the country's policies in all sectors, including the household sector. Without identifying the influential factors and their importance in the pattern of household water consumption, planning and implementation of effective policies are impossible. This study identifies socio-economic factors affecting water demand and determine their degree of importance in the pattern of household water consumption. Due to the impossibility of specifying the accurate mathematical relationships between these factors and water consumption, this study used the random forest algorithm to determine the most important factors. Also, because of the differences in the lifestyle and cultures of rural and urban households, these two groups have been studied separately. Finally, according to the obtained results, 17 important factors were determined in three different levels of influence. The variables of household income, house size, and age of the household’s head were identified as the three most important quantitative variables affecting both urban and rural household consumption, respectively. Among the qualitative variables, the use of evaporative cooler was recognized as the most important effective variable. Other factors were ranked in order of effectiveness.
Political economy
Salman Gharakhani; Mohsen Renani; Zahra Karimi
Abstract
One of the prevalent theoretical models for understanding the historical roots of the underdevelopment of various societies is the new institutionalist theory of institutional quality improvement which emphasizes the fundamental origins of economic growth. According to this theory, societies with inclusive ...
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One of the prevalent theoretical models for understanding the historical roots of the underdevelopment of various societies is the new institutionalist theory of institutional quality improvement which emphasizes the fundamental origins of economic growth. According to this theory, societies with inclusive institutions will experience a sustainable economic growth and development by creating a creative destruction process and a generative rent distribution while moving toward evolutionary cycles. Societies with extractive institutions, however, will lag behind and decline in the long run due to the dominance of rent relations and the non-generative rent distribution while moving toward vicious cycles. During the second Pahlavi period, despite its short-term experience of economic growth, Iran moved to vicious cycles instead of evolutionary ones; therefore, in order to investigate this issue, the reasons for the lack of sustainable economic growth during this period will be addressed using the theory of institutional quality improvement. To this end, one of the most important institutional barriers to economic growth in this period will be addressed through examining the process of creative destruction on the political and economic market. The results of this study indicate that despite experiencing the short-term economic growth achieved under the shadow of extractive institutions during this period due to factors such as power struggles, dominance of personal relations over affairs, the non-generative rent distribution etc., the process of creative destruction did not take shape on the political and economic market, so that despite the abundance of sources of income and foreign aid, Iran could not maintain its economic growth and development.
Regional Planning
Hojatollah Mirzaei; Taha Rabbani
Abstract
Regional development policy based on the existing capacities of knowledge and innovation in the regions is one of the neglected issues in Iran's development policy. At present, there is no serious difference in providing solutions for different provinces, while the provinces of the country are different ...
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Regional development policy based on the existing capacities of knowledge and innovation in the regions is one of the neglected issues in Iran's development policy. At present, there is no serious difference in providing solutions for different provinces, while the provinces of the country are different both in terms of the level of knowledge and innovation and its absorption capacity. In this research, based on the review of existing studies and new principles of measuring regional innovation capacity, a suitable framework for measuring innovation capacity is presented and accordingly, the innovation capacity of the country's provinces is measured. Results showed that in proportion to the decrease or increase in the level of development of regions, the innovation capacity of regions also increases or decreases. Innovation capacity has also decreased in proportion to the increasing geographical distance from the center of the country. Hence, Sistan and Baluchestan province has the lowest level of innovation capacity and provinces around Tehran such as Semnan, Karaj, Qazvin and Qom, have relatively high levels of innovation capacity. Nevertheless, Ilam and Bushehr provinces are in the first to fifth place among 31 provinces in terms of innovation capacity due to two important factors: 1. Small population and 2. Existence of oil and gas industries.
Kobra Sangari Mohazzab; Hosein Raghfar; Mir-Hossein Mousavi; Mohammad Reza Asghari Oskoei
Abstract
I International relations are full of complexities due to their multifaceted and multilateral nature. To understand decision making processes and the payoffs of their strategies, players are enabled to utilize their capabilities to impact the strategic decision payoffs. As an example of this decision ...
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I International relations are full of complexities due to their multifaceted and multilateral nature. To understand decision making processes and the payoffs of their strategies, players are enabled to utilize their capabilities to impact the strategic decision payoffs. As an example of this decision structure we can refer to the international disputes and conflicts including the sanctions. The Islamic Republic of Iran’s interests in international arena have been influenced by the changing interests of the other stakeholders in the coalition of the United States sanction against Iran. In order to analyze and predict the equilibriums of the players positions in the complex international space of the sanctions, game theory, mechanism design, multi-agent systems, and artificial intelligent as new instruments of decision theory are utilized to resolve the transactions and processes influenced by the human decisions. In this research, a policy spectrum is defined according to the strategies of Iran, the United States of America and other stakeholder’s countries. Modeling and simulating the behavior of players on this continuous spectrum which includes two extremes of capitulation and confrontation shows that in the current situation, Iran’s equilibrium and dominated strategy is emphasizing the maintenance of the current agreement in JCPOA, although this position is in the lower range of the spectrum of the current agreement. In these sanctions there is a possibility of a tragedy of the commons. In order to prevent its occurrence, the results of this study imply that the dominant strategy, given that all the players are rational, is to preserve stability, security, and integrity of Iran as a regional power. In order to achieve a stable equilibrium of the game, the stakeholders try to maximize the social welfare function instead of individual participants’ payoff. The rational strategy of Iran is to stay in JCPOA, strengthening political ties with the European players, and to empower its own military and social securities.
Jalal Montazeri Shoorekchali
Abstract
Financial crises, along with the negative and destructive effects of the debt stocks on the economy of countries with the national debt, have caused the "economic effects of the public debt stocks problem," and has become a controversial issue in the public sector economics literature. Using a Smooth ...
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Financial crises, along with the negative and destructive effects of the debt stocks on the economy of countries with the national debt, have caused the "economic effects of the public debt stocks problem," and has become a controversial issue in the public sector economics literature. Using a Smooth Transition Regression (STR) model, this paper investigates the asymmetric impact of the size of government debt - the ratio of government debt to the central bank to GDP - on economic growth in Iran during 1973-2017. The findings showed that the size of government debt to the central bank in a two-regime structure, with two thresholds, affected economic growth by 4.40% and 28.98%. At low levels of debt (years that the size of government debt to central bank is less than 4.4%) and high levels of debt (years that the size of government debt to central bank is greater than 4.40% and less than 28.98%), government borrowing from the central bank has had a negative and positive effect on economic growth, respectively. Finally, contrary to the expectations, during the period 1980-1991 (years that the size of government debt to the central bank is greater than 28.98%), the amount of government debt to the central bank has positively affected economic growth. This positive impact can be due to the specific features of the revolution and war periods in Iran, such as reducing crowding-out effects, the significant gap between real and potential production, and the more efficient cost management during years.
Institutional economy
Zohreh Rezapour; Mohsen Renani; Hadi Amiri
Abstract
Many of the common natural resources of the world are in critical conditions. The solution to this crisis is the development of effective management institutions. However, there is no consensus on these institutions. Some economists believe that creating a privately owned entity can solve the management ...
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Many of the common natural resources of the world are in critical conditions. The solution to this crisis is the development of effective management institutions. However, there is no consensus on these institutions. Some economists believe that creating a privately owned entity can solve the management problems of these resources. Others support the control of resources by the central government. Some institutionalists consider the local management strategy as the solution to this crisis. In this study, an empirical meta-analysis was performed to examine what solution the Iranian studies on the management of water (as a common natural resource) have favored more and what factors they have considered for its success or failure. For this purpose, about 120 articles were collected from the Database of National Publications (Magiran), Noor Specialized Magazines Website (Noormags), Scientific Information Database (SID) of ACECR, and Comprehensive Portal of Humanities using ‘water management’ as the keyword. Seventy-three of these articles were related to the subject of the current study. The results of this research showed that most of these studies (about 70%) used a local participatory management solution and in order to investigate the reasons for its success or failure, they paid more attention to physical factors than institutional rules and arrangements. Thirty percent of the studies supported the market or government solution. In conclusion, this study suggests that more comprehensive approaches such as Ostrom’s analysis be used in future studies to find the most appropriate management method and its effectiveness in analyses so that common resources such as water can be managed more efficiently.
Mahdie Rezagholizade; Malihe keyvanpor
Abstract
One important aspect of financial development in oil-exporting countries is how to allocate oil income during periods of oil price fluctuations. Financial development in these countries affects their current accounts in two ways: directly through the impact on savings and investment and indirectly ...
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One important aspect of financial development in oil-exporting countries is how to allocate oil income during periods of oil price fluctuations. Financial development in these countries affects their current accounts in two ways: directly through the impact on savings and investment and indirectly through the impact on the relationship of oil prices and current account. Considering the importance of this issue, this study investigates the role of financial development in the relationship between oil price and current account using a nonlinear Smooth Transition Regression model (STR) during the period of 1978-2016 in Iran. Based on the relevant tests, it is concluded that there is a nonlinear relationship between the current account and world oil price. Financial development is chosen as the best transition variable and the nonlinear Smooth Transition Regression model with a two-regime logistic transition function (LSTR1) has been chosen as the best model for this relationship. The results of estimation show that the oil price appearing in the form of a two-regime structure with a threshold level (1.5386) in the first regime (when financial development is less than it’s threshold value (1.5386)) has a positive and significant effect on Iran’s current account; The intensity of this positive effect increases by crossing the threshold level entering to the second regime (when financial development is higher than its threshold value (1.5386).
