Karim Azarbaijani; seyed komail tayebi; Hossein Karimi Hosnijeh
Volume 4, Issue 13 , February 2003, , Pages 75-107
Abstract
Today, phenomenon like globalization, regionalism and trade blocks' are the basic issues which bring many positive consequences to the world economy. Among all, it would impress foreign transactions, increase the amount of trade flows, achieve the competitive capability and improve it, ...
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Today, phenomenon like globalization, regionalism and trade blocks' are the basic issues which bring many positive consequences to the world economy. Among all, it would impress foreign transactions, increase the amount of trade flows, achieve the competitive capability and improve it, removes the tarrif and non-tarrif barriers and acquiring the binding conditions for a presence in the "World Free Trade".
Regionalism and trade blocks are one of the ways that developing countries can adopt to collate the globalization process. To acknowledge their own abilities or, to settle the commercial and economic disputes in their regions by using their comparative advantages, and getting the inherent readiness to merge to the world economywith a more extensive process.
In this paper, in addition to review the process of globalization, regionalism and their effects on domestic and international economies, it also recalling some literatures and evidences on this basis and examines the most proper trade arrangements and economic convergence for the selected Middle East countries by utilizing the "Gravity Model" and it's estimation on "Panel Data" method.
Gravity models with Panel Data method, on the basis of using variables such as (GDP), economic structure, population, geographic situation, cultural contributions and per capita income.
The results show that economic integration amongECO and D-8 countries could increase the value of trade and create opportunities for more exports and imports.
GDP has a positive effect on trade while geographical distance has a negative sign and shows that it has no effect on Iranian's bilateral trade and there is no sigii of trade bias.
Vahid Taghinezhadomran; Majid Hassani
Volume 14, Issue 42 , April 2010, , Pages 75-99
Abstract
Part of harmful effects of inflation on the economy stems from the financial sector. This paper argues that inflation shifts resources from manufacturing sector to financial sector leading to an increase in the relative size of financial sector. This shift of resources can be viewed as a harmful ...
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Part of harmful effects of inflation on the economy stems from the financial sector. This paper argues that inflation shifts resources from manufacturing sector to financial sector leading to an increase in the relative size of financial sector. This shift of resources can be viewed as a harmful effect of inflation, because if inflation were lower, the resources could be used directly to increase production of goods. Using Johanson's methodology and data of Iran in 1343-1385, we find that the relative size of financial sector is strongly affected by inflation.
Alireza Kazerooni; Hadi Mojiri
Volume 15, Issue 45 , February 2011, , Pages 77-102
Abstract
This study empirically analyses bilateral J-curve dynamics of Iran with her six trading partners using time series data over the period 1979 - 2005. Short and long - run impacts of the depreciation of Iranian Rial on the trade balance between Iran and her six trading partners are estimated by using ...
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This study empirically analyses bilateral J-curve dynamics of Iran with her six trading partners using time series data over the period 1979 - 2005. Short and long - run impacts of the depreciation of Iranian Rial on the trade balance between Iran and her six trading partners are estimated by using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Approach and Error Correction Model (ECM). The empirical results indicate that there is J-curve effect in the short-run between Iran with China and UAE, but in the long - run, the real depreciation of the Iranian Rial has positive impact on trade balance with UAE. The stability of the long-run trade balance equations are tested by using CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests.
Mansoureh Aghighi; Ali Mohammad Kimiagari
Volume 13, Issue 40 , October 2009, , Pages 77-99
Abstract
Since the Third Economic-Social-Cultural Development Plan and & specially in Forth Plan، the government has noticed the importance and crucial role of TFP(Total Factor Productivity) growth in enhancing GDP(Gross Domestic Product) and therefor، has been economical situation of country & has ...
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Since the Third Economic-Social-Cultural Development Plan and & specially in Forth Plan، the government has noticed the importance and crucial role of TFP(Total Factor Productivity) growth in enhancing GDP(Gross Domestic Product) and therefor، has been economical situation of country & has begun trying to increase TFP of country by improving the Partial Performance Indices(PPI).Therefore the necessity of relating the computed TFP to the PPIs in companies –which without that، computing TFP alone would not be useful & applicable enough- is clear. None of the Ministries and governmental companies of Iran were successful to study this relation، so Tthis article studies & investigates the effects of PPI on TFP this subject in NIOOC، which is that is one of the main producing oil & gas sub-companies of NIOC (National Iranian Oil Company)، as a case study with respect to Labor and Capital PPIs infor the period of 1997 -to 2006. ، based on econometrics & stasistical models We use the . Research will be done using Solow mMethod with Cobb-Douglas production fFunction as well as ; & in addition to main method، also the Kendrick method. method will be used، so that results can be comparable. It can be seen that both methods nearly represent the same results. The results of this project show that in NIOOC the most effective studied Partial Performance Indexes on TFP in NIOOC is “the proportion of operating & managerial staff” that represents the high importance of structuring & suitable organizational chart. Other indices which were effective on TFP of NIOOC were experience and expertise، the number of technologies used in production of oil، & finally the degree of using educated staff respectively.
Mohamad Vaez; Khadijeh Nasrollahi; Amir jabbari
Volume 9, Issue 31 , July 2007, , Pages 77-102
Abstract
The central banks holding of the international reserves serves as a means for financing the balance-of-payments deficit, but bears opportunity costs. Therefore, the optimal level of the international reserves is one of the monetary authorities’ major concerns. The special economic conditions of ...
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The central banks holding of the international reserves serves as a means for financing the balance-of-payments deficit, but bears opportunity costs. Therefore, the optimal level of the international reserves is one of the monetary authorities’ major concerns. The special economic conditions of the country, such as the severe dependency of the economy on the oil exporting revenues, lacking of the necessary flexibility in the foreign exchange market, commercial limitations and controlling the capital flows, limited access to the international financial markets, poor management of the foreign debts, and various national and international shocks to the economy in recent years have made the determining of the optimal level of the international reserves very important to the Iranian economy. In this paper, we use the Frankel-Jovanovic model which is based on the Bamol’s and Tobin’s buffer stock model and apply dynamic optimization and GARCH model to determine the optimal level of the international reserves of Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran for the period 1961-2004. Our findings show that the real reserves level, except for the periods of high oil revenues, have been lower than the optimal level.
Mahmood Khataei; Sepideh Khatibi; Nierehsadat Gharshi
Volume 9, Issue 30 , April 2007, , Pages 77-92
Abstract
In this paper, we study the restricting factors leading to the disequilibrium condition in the Iranian market for bank’s credit using the switching regression model for the period 1353-1383 (1974-2004).
The results of our study show that the real banking interest rate, real ...
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In this paper, we study the restricting factors leading to the disequilibrium condition in the Iranian market for bank’s credit using the switching regression model for the period 1353-1383 (1974-2004).
The results of our study show that the real banking interest rate, real money supply, real banks reserves in central bank, and monetary base have significant relationship with credit supply. Also, the estimation of credit demand shows a positive relationship between the lag of the real deposits and credit demand.
The interesting point is the insignificant relationship between the credit demand and the banking interest rate in the study period, but a high significant relationship between supply and the banking interest rate . This implies that the restricting factor in the credit market is the supply side which has always been less than the demand. An estimation of the market clearing banking interest rates in comparison with the real observed interest rates in recent years also confirms the result .
Reihaneh Gaskari; Ali Reza Eghbali; Hamid Reza Hallafi
Volume 7, Issue 24 , October 2005, , Pages 77-94
Abstract
Revenues obtained through gas and oil sale compose a considerable and important part of the Iranian government revenue and the GDP. In this paper, after a brief review on oil sector and income resulting from its export, the authors study the literature pertaining to export instability and its impact ...
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Revenues obtained through gas and oil sale compose a considerable and important part of the Iranian government revenue and the GDP. In this paper, after a brief review on oil sector and income resulting from its export, the authors study the literature pertaining to export instability and its impact on economic growth. Using moving average method with a five-year lag, they found a process for export divergence from which considered as a base for instability. They suggest five definitions for instability as follows: Divergence absolute value, square root of divergence, squared divergence, divergence absolute value for one unit of the estimated amount, and negative divergence. Instability is then considered as a variable in the traditional production function of Feder, which is estimated by ARDL model using five definitions of instability. The findings indicate that there is a negative relation between the first three different definitions of instability and economic growth. Regarding the fourth definition, there is no significant relation and cointegration among the variables is also doubtful. However, regarding the fifth definition, there is a positive and considerable relation between export instability and economic growth and it seems that the fifth definition is not a suitable method to define oil export instability.
Ali Emami Meybodi; Musa Khoshkalam Khosroshahi; Rohallah Mahdavi
Volume 13, Issue 41 , February 2010, , Pages 79-106
Abstract
Productivity improvement is one of the important factors in economic growth.. This paper attempts to study the impact of human capital on Total Factor Productivity in the industrial sector of East Azarbaijan Province in Iran during the period 1374-1385 (1994-2005). To probe the impact of human capital ...
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Productivity improvement is one of the important factors in economic growth.. This paper attempts to study the impact of human capital on Total Factor Productivity in the industrial sector of East Azarbaijan Province in Iran during the period 1374-1385 (1994-2005). To probe the impact of human capital on Total Factor Productivity, the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) technique the Malmquist Index have been applied. The results indicate that the management efficiency, as an index of human capital, affects the TFP to almost the same extent as other factors.
Alimorad Sharifi; Mehdi Sadeghi; Mahdi Nafar; zahra dehghan shabani
Volume 11, Issue 35 , July 2008, , Pages 79-110
Abstract
In this paper, we study the factors affecting changes in energy intensity in Iran. We use Fisher Ideal index in order to decompose the energy intensity into the structural changes and efficiency improvements in the Iranian manufacturing industries during 1993-2004. The results show that the structural ...
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In this paper, we study the factors affecting changes in energy intensity in Iran. We use Fisher Ideal index in order to decompose the energy intensity into the structural changes and efficiency improvements in the Iranian manufacturing industries during 1993-2004. The results show that the structural changes have had a little effect in decreasing the energy intensity in the manufacturing industries in Iran.
Mahnoosh Abdollah Milani
Volume 2, Issue 7 , February 2001, , Pages 79-100
Abstract
One of the most important objectives of implementing social security systems is income redistribution and poverty alleviation among the members of the society, that is accompanied with other policies to improve income distribution.Among different strategies of social security, social insurance ...
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One of the most important objectives of implementing social security systems is income redistribution and poverty alleviation among the members of the society, that is accompanied with other policies to improve income distribution.Among different strategies of social security, social insurance has a special priority and covers a large share of the society. Since old age and disability is certain to occur in everyone's normal life, therefore the issue of pensioners' income is important for both pensioners and the society at large.This paper uses the household budget survey of the Iran Statistic Center to study the households with a pensioner head and to compare this group with urban households, using distribution measures and indices.The results show that, in average, headcount ratio between households with a pensioner head is less than the urban households.The annual per capita expenditure in former group is higher than the latter one, and are not income distribution between pensioners improved in years, but results show a better situation for urban households.
Jamshid Pazhooyan; Alireza Amini
Volume 3, 8(Spring and Summer ) , April 2001, , Pages 79-99
Abstract
Present research study aims to test the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis in the context of Iranian economy. Capital and skilled labor are postulated to be complementary. Skilled labors are defined as those labors with university education. To test this hypothesis, sector-wise demand ...
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Present research study aims to test the capital-skill complementarity hypothesis in the context of Iranian economy. Capital and skilled labor are postulated to be complementary. Skilled labors are defined as those labors with university education. To test this hypothesis, sector-wise demand functions for this class of labor have been estimated. These sectors are classified as: agriculture, industry, public, social, personal and housing services and other services. The econometric results indicate that capital and skilled labor appear to be complementary in all production and service sectors. As such, introduction of policies such as tax credit investment would result in cost reduction in terms of investment expenditures, and increase in demand for skilled labor force. Across the production sectors, skilled and unskilled labor has appeared as substitutes while in service complementary to each other but with fuel it appears as complementary.
Mohammad Ali Falahi; Ali Cheshmi
Volume 6, Issue 19 , July 2004, , Pages 79-95
Abstract
Tobin’s q model is one of the most important neoclassical investment theories which has been used in various empirical studies. In this paper, using the theory and panel data, the relationship between the investment by the Iranian firms & the corporate tax is examined.
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Tobin’s q model is one of the most important neoclassical investment theories which has been used in various empirical studies. In this paper, using the theory and panel data, the relationship between the investment by the Iranian firms & the corporate tax is examined.
Firouz Fallahi; Hossein Asgharpur; Sajjad Abdollahzadeh
Abstract
In this study, the continuous wavelet transformation approach is employed to test the dynamics of the causality between two principal inflation indices i.e. consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) based on monthly data from 1990:5 to 2013:12 for the Iranian economy. Analyzing the dynamics ...
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In this study, the continuous wavelet transformation approach is employed to test the dynamics of the causality between two principal inflation indices i.e. consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) based on monthly data from 1990:5 to 2013:12 for the Iranian economy. Analyzing the dynamics of causality between these two inflation indices could provide significant policy implications. One of the dominant aspects of this approach compared with the conventional causality tests is that it has a higher ability in analyzing dynamics of causality between time series. The wavelet, as a band pass filter to the time series, is stretched in time by varying its scale, which makes it possible to show the short run and long run causalities between the time series. In this paper, we apply the continuous wavelet transformation to study the inflationary cycles of the Iranian economy. The results confirm both demand-pull and cost-push nature of inflation by indicating bidirectional causality between the CPI and PPI. In fact, the causality directions vary over time depending on different economic conditions.
Ali Emami Meibodi; Mohammad Shamsoddin
Volume 14, Issue 43 , July 2010, , Pages 81-109
Abstract
The introduction of the new oil exchanges and development of oil derivatives transactions have dramatically changed the mechanism of oil price movements. Expectations of monetary policies and directions of money flows between the financial and commodity markets have played fundamental roles in deriving ...
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The introduction of the new oil exchanges and development of oil derivatives transactions have dramatically changed the mechanism of oil price movements. Expectations of monetary policies and directions of money flows between the financial and commodity markets have played fundamental roles in deriving the oil prices in the world markets.This paper investigates the effect of the U.S. monetary policy on the real prices of oil and the real revenues of the OPEC member countries using the Dornbusch’s overshooting model. The results show the negative long run Co-integration between oil prices and the U.S. interest rates. The results of the Random Effect Model also reveal that the difference between the real interest rates of the U.S. and that of the OPEC members has a negative impact on the oil revenues of the OPEC members.
Parviz Davoodi; Akbar Shahmoradi
Volume 6, Issue 20 , October 2004, , Pages 81-113
Abstract
In this paper, we analyze the determinants of the FDI using a panel data consisting of 46 developed and developing countries, including Iran. The period of study is 1990-2002. The estimated reduced form model is derived from a simultaneous macroeconomic model. The Housman test statistic carried out to ...
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In this paper, we analyze the determinants of the FDI using a panel data consisting of 46 developed and developing countries, including Iran. The period of study is 1990-2002. The estimated reduced form model is derived from a simultaneous macroeconomic model. The Housman test statistic carried out to verify using fixed effect rather than random. Also, the tests of Hadri (2000) for the null of stationarity against the alternative of unit root in panel data are carried out to show the reliability of the results, among other factors. The results imply that focusing on the necessary laws and regulations, motivating local private investment, increasing R&D, enhancing infrastructure investment’s efficiency and productivity, more skilled and productive labor force, and finally increasing the political stability of the country could be most important factors to attract FDI.
Ali Asghar Banouei; parisa mohajeri; narges sadeghi; afsaneh sherkat
Abstract
In this article, we show that the application of LQ methods for estimation of RIOT in Iran requires two types of residuals. To tackle with this problem, a new mixed FLQ-RAS method is proposed. This method maintains the official data of regional accounts that has been provided by the Statistical Centre ...
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In this article, we show that the application of LQ methods for estimation of RIOT in Iran requires two types of residuals. To tackle with this problem, a new mixed FLQ-RAS method is proposed. This method maintains the official data of regional accounts that has been provided by the Statistical Centre of Iran and therefore, the sectoral export is used as a residual. Domestic National, Gilan IOTs and regional accounts for the year 2002 have been used. FLQ and FLQ-RAS methods have used to estimate the RIOTs of Gilan. For the evaluation, we have used five conventional statistical methods for error measurment. The results are twofolds.The minimum adjustment is 0.9% for agriculture and the maximum adjustment is 55% for mining. Second the degree of accuracy between the two methods reveals that the proposed method outperforms than the FLQ method. The application of the proposed method has four advantages in Iran: one- flexibility for covering more sectors, two- extension to other regions, three- its complete consistency with the basic data of the country and four- its flexibility in considering exogenous or superior data at the regional level.
Narges Akbarpour Roshan; Milad Shahrazi
Abstract
The Laffer curve represents a parabola relationship between tax revenues and tax rates, and identifies the tax rate that maximizes tax revenues for the government. The aim of this paper is to test whether there is such a relationship between contribution revenues and contribution rate in Iranian Social ...
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The Laffer curve represents a parabola relationship between tax revenues and tax rates, and identifies the tax rate that maximizes tax revenues for the government. The aim of this paper is to test whether there is such a relationship between contribution revenues and contribution rate in Iranian Social Security Organization. Moreover, if the answer is yes, what is the contribution rate that maximizes revenues for the Organization? In this regard, we have used an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results for the period of 1979-2016 show that the impact of effective contribution rate on the Organization’s revenues has the shape of an inverted U. Therefore, the results confirm the Laffer effects of this rate on the Organization’s contribution revenues. Additionally, a contribution rate of 20.34 percent will maximize the Organization's revenues.
Mohsen Mehrara; Mojtaba Mohammdian
Volume 19, Issue 61 , February 2015, , Pages 83-116
Abstract
This paper has tried to apply Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Weighted Average Least Squares (WALS) approaches as methods of averaging in Bayesian econometrics in order to investigate the impact of 18 macroeconomic variables on Gini coefficient in Iran based on annual data from 1976 to 2010. The results ...
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This paper has tried to apply Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) and Weighted Average Least Squares (WALS) approaches as methods of averaging in Bayesian econometrics in order to investigate the impact of 18 macroeconomic variables on Gini coefficient in Iran based on annual data from 1976 to 2010. The results of two approaches indicate that the growth rate of Gross domestic products is the most important determinant of the Gini coefficient, implying economic growth arising from oil booms leads to more unequal distribution of income. As regards to other variables, the results of BMA estimation indicate that second and third effective variables on Gini coefficient are respectively the ratio of government current expenditure to GDP and the ratio of oil revenue to GDP for which an increase in the ratios engenders inequality. Thus the distribution of oil rents and government expenditure is inconsistent with primary purposes of politicians to ameliorate income distribution. Also the results of WALS estimation rank openness and exchange rate as the most effective variables respectively with positive sign. Therefore economic liberalization moving along with oil revenue during the sample period, has been against the favor of lower income groups. According to aforementioned results, it is necessary to revise economic growth policies to the benefit of low-income groups of people. In addition, renovation of budgeting process and allocation of resources with aim to reduce rent-seeking opportunities and more privileges for low-income groups must be considered by policy makers.
Teymur Mohamadi
Volume 17, Issue 50 , April 2012, , Pages 83-98
Abstract
This paper presents an assessment of the small-sample performance of the three well-known estimators of components variance in random effects model for panel data. The estimators considered are Swamy-Arora, Wansbeek-Kaptayn and Wallace-Hussain. To this end, by simulating a one-way error component model ...
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This paper presents an assessment of the small-sample performance of the three well-known estimators of components variance in random effects model for panel data. The estimators considered are Swamy-Arora, Wansbeek-Kaptayn and Wallace-Hussain. To this end, by simulating a one-way error component model in the form of random effects, small sample performance of three variance estimators is studied. The implications of these results for indentifying the model and its estimation are specified. In these simulations, conditions under which Swamy-Arora estimator is inferior to alternatives are expressed. It is shown that in small samples the estimator thus obtained can give highly wrong guidance. In one-way error component model this small sample size refers to the number of cross-sections.
Vahid Farzam; Fateme Taleghani; Robabeh Khilkordi
Abstract
The employment and access to job is one of the most basic needs of a community so that the increase in employment is seen as one of the indicators of development in societies. Given the importance of the issue, the aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of exchange rate overshooting on employment ...
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The employment and access to job is one of the most basic needs of a community so that the increase in employment is seen as one of the indicators of development in societies. Given the importance of the issue, the aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of exchange rate overshooting on employment in agriculture, industry and service sectors in Iran during 1973- 2011 using the seemingly unrelated regression and vector error correction model. The results of vector error correction model indicate that due to expansion in money supply exchange rate increases and divergence from equilibrium path occurs which finally leads to adjustment in the long run. Also, the results of seemingly unrelated regression model show that employment in industry and service sectors is respectively negatively and positively affected by exchange rate overshooting, yet the impact of this overshooting on employment in agriculture sector is not significant. In this regard, the demand of labor in the industry sector compared to service and agriculture sectors was the most sensitive to exchange rate overshooting. In addition, capital stock in industry and service sectors has a positive impact on employment in each sector.
Zahra Azizi; Morteza Khorsandi
Volume 17, Issue 53 , February 2013, , Pages 85-100
Abstract
In recent years, several studies have examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth. But even considering the same Indicators of financial development, findings of these studies have been different. The existence of non-linear relationships can be one of the reasons for ...
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In recent years, several studies have examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth. But even considering the same Indicators of financial development, findings of these studies have been different. The existence of non-linear relationships can be one of the reasons for these differences. In this paper using the smooth transition regression method, we examine a nonlinear relationship between financial development and economic growth in Iran. The tests of linearity, transition variable election and transition function determination results confirms the existence of non-linear relationship between financial development and economic growth by considering time trend as a transition variable. The appropriate transition function is LSTR1 that is a logistic function form with one threshold. As a result a regime change in the relationship between financial development and economic growth occurred in about 1989, ( i.e. at the end of the war ). This regime switching can also be considered as a cause for difference in findings of similar studies in Iran.
Majid Sameti; Rohollah Shahnazi; Zahra dehghan shabani
Volume 15, Issue 44 , October 2010, , Pages 85-109
Abstract
This paper investigates the role of property right and regulation in credit, business and labor markets on economic growth by using two panel data models for 80 countries during 2000-2005. The first model considers legal structure and total effect of regulation on economic growth and the second model ...
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This paper investigates the role of property right and regulation in credit, business and labor markets on economic growth by using two panel data models for 80 countries during 2000-2005. The first model considers legal structure and total effect of regulation on economic growth and the second model investigates three main component of regulation; i.e. regulation in credit, business and labor markets and property right on economic growth. findings of the first model show labor force, human capital, capital stock, property right and regulation have positive effect on economic growth. And according to the second model property right and regulation in credit and labor markets have positive effect on economic growth.
Hamid Nilsaz; Abdolrahman Rasekh; Alireza Osareh; Hasanali Sinae
Volume 9, Issue 32 , October 2007, , Pages 85-109
Abstract
Traditional methods of deciding whether to grant credit to a particular individual use human judgment of the risk of default based on experience of previous decisions. However, economic pressures resulting from increased demand for credit, allied with greater commercial competition and the emergence ...
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Traditional methods of deciding whether to grant credit to a particular individual use human judgment of the risk of default based on experience of previous decisions. However, economic pressures resulting from increased demand for credit, allied with greater commercial competition and the emergence of new computer technology have led to development of sophisticated statistical models to aid the credit granting decision making process. Credit scoring is the name used to describe this process of determining how likely applicants are to default with their repayments. Credit scoring has some obvious benefits that have led to its increasing use in loan evaluation. For example, it is quicker, cheaper and more objective than judgmental method. A wide range of statistical methods such as discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks have been applied for credit scoring. In this paper, we design a neural network credit scoring system for classifying the applicants of personal loans in bank and compare the performance of this model with discriminant analysis and logistic regression models. The results of this investigation show that the neural network model is more accurate and more flexible than discriminant analysis and logistic regression.
Ahmad Mojtahed; Mohamadreza Farzin
Volume 2, Issue 6 , October 2000, , Pages 85-116
Abstract
Steel production is considered as a mother industry playing perhaps the most fundamental role in all aspects of national economy. Steel production has traditionally been a state monopoly in Iran, although some private sector investment has been encouraged in recent years. Major plants at present are ...
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Steel production is considered as a mother industry playing perhaps the most fundamental role in all aspects of national economy. Steel production has traditionally been a state monopoly in Iran, although some private sector investment has been encouraged in recent years. Major plants at present are the Ahwaz Steel Mill in Khuzestan province, and the Isfahan Steel Mill and Mobarakeh steel complex in Isfahan province. They are operated by the state National Steel Corporation with the prices administered by the government.The present study is an attempt to analyze the effects of protectionism in the steel industry in Iran to find out circumstances in which the industry may operate in a competetive environment in the future. We have applied three major factors assumed to be effective criteria in determining the consequences of state protection measures in steel production. They are: Nominal Protection Rate, Effective Protection Rate, and Domestic Resource Cost (DRC). To present a reasonable criteria, shadow pricing method is used for foreign exchange rate, energy cost, costs of primary resources (labour and capital), and non-tradeable inputs to construct input-output table for the 1990 and 1995 figures.The analysis reveals that protectionist policy in the steel industry is highly sensitive to changes in the exchange rate and costs of energy since the effects of tariff and non-tariff protection measures are heavily influenced by them. There exists apparently comparative advantages in steel production under protectionist policy. But steel production would not be economically viable and competetive if energy costs are charged using the world energy pries. In this paper, we suggest using the remoral of protection measures through a well-prepared short-term scheme to make the steel industry capable of adapting to new circumstances of world competition awaiting all major industrial production.
Farzad Eskandari
Abstract
In this study, based on Bayesian Generalized Linear Models, correlation between the parameters of two Poisson distributions was computed. Due to lack of the closed form for posterior distribution, hierarchical Bayesian statistics using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to calculate the correlation of ...
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In this study, based on Bayesian Generalized Linear Models, correlation between the parameters of two Poisson distributions was computed. Due to lack of the closed form for posterior distribution, hierarchical Bayesian statistics using the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to calculate the correlation of two Poisson distributions is presented. In this regard, the highest posterior density for coefficient of variation in the model are calculated. Using Bayesian Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) has been shown that a Poisson-lognormal model can assess the correlation between the parameters better than the Poisson-gamma model. Finally, the proposed method is used to simulated data of BANK TEJARAT .
